What On-Chain Signals Indicate the Shift
The founder of CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju, declared that Bitcoin’s bull run has already begun, speaking in a recent interview published by Bitcoin Magazine. He stated that the current market phase marks the end of the bear cycle that concluded this summer, based on his analysis of on-chain metrics. His outlook projects a price increase of three to five times from the cycle lows, rather than a tenfold surge, citing structural changes in market dynamics.
Breaking news
Bitcoin Security Could Be Threatened by 2046, AI Model Indicates
XRP Ledger Patches Critical Bug That Could Have Minted 18 Trillion Tokens
Aptos Launches AI Tools to Simplify Move Programming
Regulatory Reach: CFTC Says It Can Oversight Nearly All CommoditiesKi Young Ju explained that the reduced volatility and more measured price growth are driven by increasing institutional participation through exchange-traded funds and improved custody solutions. These factors, he said, absorb selling pressure and stabilize price action compared to previous cycles dominated by retail speculation. On-chain data, particularly metrics tracking long-term holder behavior and exchange inflows, supports his view that accumulation is underway without the extreme euphoria seen in 2021.
How Do ETFs Change Bitcoin’s Cycle Behavior?
According to Ki Young Ju, the realization cap and HODL waves show strong accumulation by long-term holders, a sign of conviction rather than short-term trading. Exchange reserves continue to decline, suggesting coins are moving into cold storage, which reduces immediate sell pressure. He noted that the MVRV ratio remains below levels seen during prior bull peaks, indicating room for growth without overextension. These indicators collectively suggest a maturing market structure.
The introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 has altered how capital enters the market, Ki Young Ju argued. Unlike past cycles where leverage and futures drove spikes, ETFs bring steady, regulated inflows that tend to dampen sharp corrections. He believes this institutional layer acts as a shock absorber, making parabolic moves less likely while supporting sustained upward momentum. This shift, he said, explains why a 3x to 5x return is more plausible than another 10x surge.
What does Ki Young Ju base his 3x to 5x outlook on? He bases it on on-chain data showing accumulation by long-term holders, declining exchange reserves, and the stabilizing influence of institutional ETF and custody flows, which reduce volatility compared to earlier cycles.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why does he believe the bear market ended this summer? He points to on-chain signals such as rising HODL waves and falling exchange inflows, which indicate that selling pressure has weakened and accumulation has resumed since mid-2023.
How do ETFs affect Bitcoin’s price cycles according to CryptoQuant’s analysis? ETFs bring steady, institutional capital that reduces reliance on leveraged retail trading, leading to less volatile and more gradual price increases rather than explosive spikes seen in previous bull runs.
